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Housing Australia Dwelling Projections

Client: Housing Australia

Housing Australia engaged Macroplan to support the preparation of the State of the Nation’s Housing reports for 2021–22 and 2022-23.

Our team prepared a model which used current Centre for Population national, state and territory and regional population projections and translated these into dwelling forecasts.  This included modelling demand for key dwelling types across these markets and estimating the potential supply response.

More than 1.8 million new households are expected to form across Australia from 2023 to 2033, taking total households to 12.6 million (up from 10.7 million in 2022). These households are expected to comprise around 1.7 million new occupied households and 116,000 vacant properties (e.g. holiday homes).

However, the much earlier increase in interest rates (relative to previous Reserve Bank of Australia guidance) is adversely impacting supply. Net new construction is expected to fall to 127,500 dwellings in 2024-25, followed by a recovery in supply after 2025-26 reflecting changing macroeconomic conditions and stronger underlying demand.

Our team assisted Housing Australia address several specific research topics presented in the State of the Nation’s Housing reports.

A full copy of the report can be accessed here

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